Illinois’ Population Decline May Be Slowing, New Data Shows

The continuing narrative on the population of Illinois is decline. This has been the case for over a decade now. But it seems like the trend is slowing.

Five years ago, the ratio of people moving away from Illinois compared to those moving in was almost two to one. The state has seen that ratio shrink to an almost one to one level. The most recent numbers on people searching places to leave Illinois (for most of 2025) have almost leveled off.

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This could be due to a couple of factors. Perhaps the people that have the means to move away, whether that’s across a neighboring border, - or as far away as you can get, have already done so, leaving Illinois with a group that it’s going to have to deal with (and vice/versa). The working premise is that those that paid higher taxes were the ones to leave first, and are already gone.

There is also the reality that percentages are fine to play with and examine, but in sheer volume, while close to 1 to 1 is better than 2 to 1, the numbers are still upside down. So, while Illinois is bringing in people, it is still losing more to other states, and compared to other states. Are those that are coming in an equal 1 to 1 for potential tax revenue? You also have to wait to factor in the potential flight from the floated property tax increases in Chicago that were announced since the beginning of the fourth quarter, to cover out of balance city budgets and debt. The 2025 Q3 numbers show a slow trend in an encouraging direction, the picture is incomplete without Q4.