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Can Sports Outcomes Predict the Election Outcome

(photo by flickr/markcbrennen)

There’s a lot of buzz going around about the Redskins rule as a predictor of the outcome of the presidential election. Since the Carolina Panthers beat the Redskins in Washington on Sunday the rule would indicate a win for Mitt Romney on Election Day,

According to the Redskins Rule, if the Redskins win their last home game before the presidential election, then the incumbent party stays in the White House. If the Redskins lose, then the incumbent party is voted out.

There by since the Redskins lost on Sunday the incumbent will exit the Whitehouse and Romney will win.

The Redskins Rule has been correct 17 of 18 times. That’s a 94.4 percent accuracy rate.

The rule was discovered in 2000 when Steve Hirdt of the Elias Sports Bureau was doing research for a Redskins game about a week before the election. His research went all the way back to the first year that the Redskins played in Washington (1940) and found it to be a flawless predictor at the time.

The only exception has been 2004 when the Redskins lost to the Packers. According to the rule, that meant incumbent president George W. Bush should’ve lost the election to John Kerry.

The World Series outcome has also been used as a predictor of the presidential elections. If the American League team wins, then a Republican will take office and if the National League wins the Democrats will win the Whitehouse.

This rule has only held true for 13 of 18 games since 1940 for a 72.2 percent success rate.

Following the World Series rule where the National League Giants won the series, then Obama should win re-election.

Either way, one of these sports rules will be proven right tomorrow.

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